Best College Basketball Predictions and Picks Today (How to Bet March Madness Elite 8)
The Sweet 16 is in the books and now it’s time to move on to the Elite Eight.
Saturday’s action will feature two games, starting with a showdown between Texas Tech and Florida. The Red Raiders are the only team that’s not a No. 1 or No. 2 seed to advance to the Elite Eight. They’re now significant underdogs to a seemingly invincible Gators team.
Speaking of invincible, the Duke Blue Devils are the NCAA Tournament favorites and for good reason. They’ll now take on an Alabama team that set the record for most three-pointers made in a single game in NCAA Tournament history when they blew past BYU in the Sweet 16.
Let’s take a look at our pick for each game.
College Basketball Best Bets Today
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
- Florida -6.5 (-118) vs. Texas Tech
- Duke -6.5 (-120) vs. Alabama
Texas Tech vs. Florida Prediction
In my full betting preview for this game, I broke down why I’m backing Florida to win and cover the spread:
I’m done betting against Florida until the Gators prove otherwise. They are a flawless team from top to bottom and even when they don’t have their best stuff, like against the Huskies, they still found a way to get the win.
Both teams are primarily three-point shooters but it’s the Gators who have the far better perimeter defense. They keep teams to shooting just 29.3% from beyond the arc, the fifth-best mark in the country. Texas Tech ranks 81st in that stat.
Fans and bettors of the Red Raiders should be concerned that while they’ve managed to win all three games, Texas Tech’s effective field goal percentage is 5.6% lower than their regular-season average. A bad sign heading into a game against a team as good as Florida.
I’ll lay the points with the Gators.
Pick: Florida -6.5 (-118)
Alabama vs. Duke Prediction
Brian Giuffra wrote our betting preview for this game, and he’s also going to be laying the points with the favorite:
After Duke and Alabama put up 100 points each in the Sweet 16, the easy pick is to back the OVER. However, the total being set at 174.5 seems like a trap so I’m going to focus on the spread.
Alabama has the highest-scoring offense in the nation and plays at the fastest pace in college basketball. That worked against a BYU team that also wanted to push the pace in the Sweet 16. It now faces a more methodical Duke opponent that won’t let the Crimson Tide dictate the pace for the entire game.
Duke is ranked fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation while Alabama is 27th. The Blue Devils also have the most efficient offense in the nation, while Alabama is fourth. That means in a close game where possessions are important, Duke has the more efficient offense and defense.
The path to Alabama winning this game is heavily reliant on winning the 3-point battle. Duke is an effective team defending the 3-point shot; however, it ranks 36th in the nation by allowing 31.0% to opponents from deep.
In a game where making free throws is so important and could be a deciding factor for the spread at the end of the game, Duke ranks 16th in the nation, making 78.8% of its free throws. Alabama is 196th at 71.9.
